conormulligan.com / blog

I’m of the opinion that Barack Obama won the U.S. Presidential Election about a month ago and, with 15 days to go, it seems my lack of caution may be appropriate.

Visiting FiveThirtyEight.com, an impressive project by Chicago-based statistician Nate Silver, the mathematics of the race becomes clear; Silver projects, using his exhaustive simulation model, that Barack Obama wins the election between 90% and 95% of the time (these figures are derived from 10,000 election simulations run by FiveThirtyEight.com). His poll averages have shown Obama consistently ahead for weeks.

Silver’s results were remarkably prescient during the Democratic primaries, and his method of aggregating polls is more sophisticated than other solutions like the Pollster.com composite or the Real Clear Politics average (both of which also currently project an Obama win).

At any rate, barring some major event, Obama will be the 44th President of the United States.

At a McCain rally today, Governor Sarah Palin made what many are already considering her first gaffe.

Speaking before voters in Colorado Springs, the Republican vice presidential nominee claimed that lending giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac had "gotten too big and too expensive to the taxpayers."

Huffington Post

This is a terrible mistake to make, given all the press focusing on the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac takeovers, but I think some may be making hay where none exists. I don’t buy that she does not know the relationship between the Federal Government and these institutions (anyone paying even loose attention to the credit crunch for the last few months would be more than informed), and I suspect this was simply a verbal misstep.

Frankly, I’m much more interested in her record (or lack thereof).

Anne Kilkenny, A resident of Wasilla and Sarah Palin acquaintance, has written up an extensive debrief over at The Huffington Post on the Republican Vice-Presidential nominee. The result is not particularly pretty, with a number of her positions and actions seemingly well-placed to undercut the McCain campaign’s message of reform, tested stewardship and fiscal responsibility. Here are some of the highlights:

• Experienced: Some high schools have more students than Wasilla has residents. Many cities have more residents than the state of Alaska. No legislative experience other than city council. Little hands-on supervisory or managerial experience; needed help of a city administrator to run town of about 5,000.

• Political maverick: not at all. Open and transparent: ??? Good at keeping secrets. Not good at explaining actions.

• A greenie: no. Turned Wasilla into a wasteland of big box stores and disconnected parking lots. Is pro-drilling off-shore and in ANWR.

• Pro-infrastructure: no. Promoted a sports complex and park in a city without a sewage treatment plant or storm drainage system. Built streets to early 20th century standards. Pro-small government: no. Oversaw greatest expansion of city government in Wasilla’s history.

Anne Kilkenny, The Huffington Post

It should be noted that Ms. Kilkenny is a self-described opponent of Governor Palin’s, but such a scathing critique from an Alaskan is noteworthy. Read the rest of the article at HuffingtonPost.com.

I think the interview has been a success so far, but we’ll see how things pan out next week (although the interview was taped in one sitting on Thursday afternoon, the folks at Fox have decided to air it over four days). Obama didn’t blink when O’Reilly went after him on the surge and Iranian diplomacy, although I wish he’d taken it to O’Reilly a bit more on his overly simplistic interpretation of Obama’s stance on both issues. It does bode well for Obama’s debate performance though; his answers need to be a bit more concise and soundbite-able, but the substance is there.

It is important to frame Obama’s performance in context; this is a somewhat-hostile audience (Republicans and conservative Democrats), so any inroads he makes here is progress at John McCain’s expense. Also, Thursday’s Factor had the shows second greatest ratings to date, so it is an enormously large somewhat-hostile audience.