The State of the Race
I’m of the opinion that Barack Obama won the U.S. Presidential Election about a month ago and, with 15 days to go, it seems my lack of caution may be appropriate.
Visiting FiveThirtyEight.com, an impressive project by Chicago-based statistician Nate Silver, the mathematics of the race becomes clear; Silver projects, using his exhaustive simulation model, that Barack Obama wins the election between 90% and 95% of the time (these figures are derived from 10,000 election simulations run by FiveThirtyEight.com). His poll averages have shown Obama consistently ahead for weeks.
Silver’s results were remarkably prescient during the Democratic primaries, and his method of aggregating polls is more sophisticated than other solutions like the Pollster.com composite or the Real Clear Politics average (both of which also currently project an Obama win).
At any rate, barring some major event, Obama will be the 44th President of the United States.
