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My Oscar picks, 2008

posted on February 23rd, 2008 by conmulligan

filed under Film, Review

My interest in tomorrow’s Oscars has been piqued given the quality of the nominees this year, (including a particularly strong Best Picture line-up; I think Scorsese would have been deservedly shunned yet again if The Departed were released this Awards Season).

Here is the full list of nominees in all the major categories; I’ve included what I think should, and what is likely, to win.

Best Picture

I think Juno should win; overall it was probably the strongest film.

But this is an incredibly hard category to call, all are impressive productions. I think Atonement is unlikely to get it, as is Michael Clayton (much as I enjoyed Tony Gilroy’s directorial debut). Given the strong buzz surrounding the Indie comedy, I wouldn’t be surprised if Juno pulled through.

Should Win: Juno

Will Win: Juno

Best Director

Another tough category to call, less so than Best Picture however. The general consensus seems to be that The Coen Brothers will pick the award up, besting the visionary Paul Thomas Anderson, 30-year-old Jason Reitman and first-timer Tony Gilroy.

I loved No Country, and I love The Coens, but I actually think Tony Gilroy deserves this one. Michael Clayton, is beautifully staged and shot; a unique blend of documentary sensibilities and Hollywood conventional wisdom, it is an exercise in tension and a stunning achievement for the writer-turned-director, it should be recognised.

Should Win: Tony Gilroy

Will Win: Joel Coen and Ethan Coen

Best Actor

And another impossibly tough award to predict. Unfortunately clairvoyance in this case is futile for all the wrong reasons. The Usual Suspects are all here, five of Hollywood’s best are once again nominated despite the fact that none of the performances are particularly inspiring. In fact, when Tommy Lee Jones it the wild-card, didn’t-see-that-coming nominee, there has to be something funny going on.

The problem I have with this year’s nominees, is not a lack of talent, or even of strong performance, it’s that nothing stands out as uniquely award winning. Clooney is believable as the ‘cleanup guy’ at a top law firm, but is never aggressively memorable (to be fair, such a demeanour was demanded of the role). Daniel Day-Lewis is impressive as always, but he doesn’t really show up until the end of the film (if he wins, as I think will be the case, it will be for these few minutes alone). Johnny Depp sings in Sweeney Todd: this is the only thing that distinguishes his performance from every other turned in under Tim Burton. Tommy Lee Jones is capable in In the Valley of Elah, but never Oscar-worthy, and I never truly bought Viggo Mortensen in Eastern Promises, which is a shame because, like the rest, he is a gifted performer.

And that’s the problem I have with this years Best Picture nominees. All are big-name, Hollywood go-to-guys; where the hell are the outsiders? Where the hell is Mathieu Amalric? I think Daniel Day-Lewis will, and probably should, win this years award; let’s hope the category is stronger next year.

Should Win: Daniel Day-Lewis

Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis

Best Actress

The disappointment found in the Best Actor categories is more than made up for with this year’s Best Actress line-up.

Cate Blanchett won’t win. She was already awarded an Oscar for the same role nine years ago, and she’s a contender for Best Supporting Actress. Julie Christie and Marion Cotillard are both exceptionally good nominees this year, and both have a shot. Unfortunately this isn’t Laura Linney’s year, the rest of the category is simply too strong.

Ellen Page should win; she gives an incredible performance is Juno and deserved to be recognised (interestingly, if she wins, at 20 she would be the youngest Best Actress winner).

Should Win: Ellen Page

Will Win: Ellen Page

Best Supporting Actor

There are three actors I like for this role; two could win, and one should win. Philip Seymour Hoffman is fantastic in Charlie Wilson’s War, but he won’t get it. Tom Wilkinson gives an Oscar-worthy performance in Michael Clayton, but he probably won’t get it (unfortunately). Javier Bardem deserves an Oscar, and was frighteningly good in No Country; he is the presumptive winner.

Should Win: Javier Bardem

Will Win: Javier Bardem

Best Supporting Actress

This is another tough call. Ruby Dee steals all five minutes she’s on screen in American Gangster (not easy when you star opposite Denzel Washington), but she’s unlikely to be awarded for it. I’d love for Saoirse Ronan to win, and she may do it, but it’s a tough category. I think Cate Blanchett may nab this one.

Should Win: Saoirse Ronan

Will Win: Cate Blanchett

Best Original Screenplay

If Michael Clayton was released another year, Tony Gilroy would be the obvious choice, but one has to go to Diablo Cody.

Should Win: Juno

Will Win: Juno

Best Adapted Screenplay

Atonement
Christopher Hampton
Atonement, novel by Ian McEwan
Away from Her
Sarah Polley
"The Bear Came over the Mountain", short story by Alice Munro
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Ronald Harwood
Le scaphandre et le papillon, memoir by Jean-Dominique Bauby
No Country for Old Men
Joel and Ethan Coen
No Country for Old Men, novel by Cormac McCarthy
There Will Be Blood
Paul Thomas Anderson
Oil!, novel by Upton Sinclair

A strong category, but I think this one doesn’t go to Hollywood; Atonement looks like the most likely winner, but I’d love to see The Diving Bell and the Butterfly get some recognition.

Should Win: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

Will Win: Atonement

Best Animated Feature

Ratatouille will win (I love when it’s easy).

Should Win: Ratatouille

Will Win: Ratatouille

Best Foreign Language Film

Beaufort (Israel), Hebrew
The Counterfeiters (Austria), German
Katyn (Poland), Polish
Mongol (Kazakhstan), Mongolian
12 (Russia), Russian

To my shame, I’ve only seen The Counterfeiters, so I’m rooting for it (although I’ve heard great things about 12).

Should Win: The Counterfeiters

Will Win: The Counterfeiters

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